Category Archives: Prediction

Predictions Update

Assuming a May 7th election date, today is almost exactly 18 months to go until the 2015 UK General Election and the model predictions have been updated for this week. There hasn’t been any huge shift in the results, with the probability of a Conservative majority dropping by about 1%.

This is partly due to a small shift in the polls in Labour’s favour. On aggregate Labour were polling around 5.3% ahead of the ┬áConservatives two weeks ago but today the difference stands at 6.2%. While it’s possible voters have responded to recent debate about energy pricing in the UK, the uncertainty associated with these polling numbers is about 1% so this is not a significant shift at this stage. The other secondary effect at play here is that the Conservatives need the polls to move in their favour in the next 18 months in order to win. As the time remaining until the election decreases the model believes this is increasingly unlikely.

Overall though the picture remains largely unchanged with the Conservatives requiring a significant shift in the polls over the next 18 months to achieve an overall majority.